Subscription LTV Calculator
Lifetime value the way it actually accrues: cohort by cohort, cycle by cycle. Model your churn curve or paste real cohort data, and get contribution LTV, average lifetime, CAC payback month and LTV:CAC — free, no signup, and your numbers never leave the browser.
What is a subscriber actually worth?
LTV is a retention curve with prices attached. Build the curve from a churn model or from your real cohorts — everything computes locally in your browser; nothing is uploaded anywhere.
Enter your subscription numbers
The curve, tiles and verdict update as you type.
Retention by month since first order
View retention as a table
Cumulative contribution per subscriber
View cumulative value as a table
Method: survival is applied per billing cycle — modeled from your churn schedule, or read from cohorts weighted by starting size with the tail projected at the average of the last three observed churn rates. The first order bills at the discounted price, every renewal at full price; contribution applies your gross margin to all of it. Figures are undiscounted and capped at the horizon — a 24-month LTV, not a forever number. See the rules below.
Average LTV is a rearview mirror
The single "average LTV" number in a dashboard blends every subscriber you've ever acquired — and hides exactly the things that decide whether growth is working.
A blended average mixes five-year veterans with last month's signups, so it always lags reality: acquisition quality can fall for two quarters before the average even flinches, because the damage is diluted by everyone acquired before it. It also moves with mix, not just behavior — scale up a discount-heavy channel and average LTV drifts down even if every channel's retention is unchanged.
Cohorts remove the time machine. Group subscribers by the month they started, track each group's survival by months-since-start, and the questions that matter become answerable: Are newer cohorts retaining better or worse than older ones at the same age? Where exactly does the curve break — the first renewal, or the sixth? What does month-12 value look like for people acquired the way you acquire them now?
That's also why this calculator's churn model is front-loaded by default. Subscription churn is not a constant: the steep cliff is the first renewal, the slope eases through the next few cycles, and long-run churn settles far lower. The textbook shortcut — LTV = ARPU ÷ churn — assumes one flat rate forever, which overstates value if you feed it the honeymoon rate and understates it if you feed it the cliff.
A subscription business isn't one LTV number — it's a family of cohort curves. The blended average is just where those curves happened to overlap last quarter.
LTV numbers are only as honest as the curve behind them
These are the rules we hold subscription math to before it's allowed to justify an acquisition budget.
Read cohorts, not averages
Compare cohorts at the same age — month 3 against month 3 — never young cohorts against the blended base. If newer cohorts sit below older ones at every age, acquisition quality is slipping no matter what the average says.
Contribution margin, not revenue
Revenue LTV can't pay for ads — contribution can. Apply gross margin (after product, shipping, fulfillment and payment costs) before comparing anything to CAC. A 3:1 ratio on revenue can be underwater on contribution.
Front-load the churn model
The first renewal is the cliff; ongoing churn is the slope. One flat churn rate — the ARPU ÷ churn shortcut — gets both wrong at once. Model the first cycles separately, or better, use the observed curve.
Cap the horizon
An infinite-sum LTV is a fantasy with a discount rate problem. Budget against 12- or 24-month LTV — money that arrives inside a window you can actually reinvest, from a forecast short enough to be checkable.
Payback beats the ratio
LTV:CAC of 3:1 means little if the cash arrives in month 18 and your ad bill is due now. The payback month sets how fast you can compound spend — two businesses with identical ratios can have opposite cash positions.
Watch cohort quality drift
Heavy first-order discounts and giveaway funnels recruit different people — cohorts acquired on deals routinely retain worse at every age. When you change the offer, watch the new cohorts' curve, not the blended rate.
Want your retention actually instrumented?
ONBRAND builds the storefront side of subscription economics for 8, 9 and 10 figure brands — the funnels, offers and experiments that move the cohort curves this page only measures. Bring the curve; we'll bend it.